Hidden triggers: How unexpected events fuel domestic violence

Monash Business School PhD candidate Sara Hutchinson Tovar.

March 18 2025

New research by Monash Business School PhD candidate Sara Hutchinson Tovar reveals a disturbing link between unforeseen circumstances and spikes in domestic abuse across the globe.

A staggering one-in-three women worldwide experiences physical or sexual violence in their lifetime.

Now new research from Monash Business School's Centre for Health Economics has uncovered some of the hidden triggers escalating the crisis.

The study by PhD candidate Sara Hutchinson Tovar examines a pattern of increased domestic violence following events such as shock sporting outcomes, natural disasters and changes in drug laws.

Ms Hutchinson Tovar said growing up in Mexico was a powerful motivation for the work.

“Coming from Mexico, where the rate of domestic violence is terrifying, has been a big motivation for my work, but intimate partner violence is a global issue,” she said.

“Women today are not safe in Mexico, the US or Australia. They are not safe in any country, and we all deserve to feel safe – especially at home.”

Her global study explores the issue through three real-life natural experiments to provide evidence in developing and developed country contexts.

The first of these scenarios investigates the causal relationship between unexpected football match outcomes and domestic violence incidents in Mexico.

“We compare game results with individual self-reported measures of domestic violence, finding that after an unexpected win the rate decreases, and after an unexpected loss it increases,” she said.

The findings also show women from disadvantaged backgrounds or with dependents or limited resources are more vulnerable to violence, and individuals with histories of childhood abuse is more likely to perpetuate the cycle.

The second scenario shifts the focus to Australia, examining the relationship between the largest bushfires in NSW and domestic violence rates over 30 years.

“We have very detailed data that we hope will help us determine whether domestic violence assaults increase in bushfire-affected regions after the fires compared to unaffected areas,” she said.

“We believe this is linked to factors like mental health, financial hardship and displacement, and we’re exploring the mechanisms driving the increase and what can be done to decrease it.”

A third scenario, still in development, will investigate the impact of changes to US cannabis laws on domestic violence.

Ultimately, Ms Hutchinson Tovar hopes the research will provide valuable insights for policymakers and inform strategies to address domestic violence on a global scale.

“The goal is to understand domestic violence from a multi-dimensional perspective and develop recommendations to prevent it,” she said.

Associate Professor Sonja de New, Ms Hutchinson Tovar’s supervisor, is enthusiastic about the potential impact of the research.

“By identifying these hidden triggers, we can develop more targeted prevention strategies and support services,” A/Prof de New said.

“The research is not only shedding light on the complexities of domestic violence but also providing a roadmap for creating safer communities.”

Ms Hutchinson Tovar said the dynamic interdisciplinary environment at the Centre for Health Economics had been instrumental to her research.

“I have an amazing team of supervisors and a strong support system that constantly motivates me to go further,” she said.

As for the future, her research into domestic violence is far from over.

“Domestic violence is a huge topic,” she said.

“This research is about people—relationships, families, and everyday life - which I find both fascinating and highly relevant.”